Libya: Extreme Scenarios

When trying to predict the outcome of a complex situation, a start is to produce a broad spectrum of scenario options. So what is at the extreme ends of the spectrum.

From today’s speech. From BBC news

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12576427

“Libya will become a red flame, a burning coal.”

As his supporters waved green flags, the symbol of Col Gaddafi’s rule, he said: “Life without dignity has no value, life without green flags has no value. Sing, dance and prepare yourselves.”

Or Sky news

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World-News/Libya-Gaddafi-Speaks-To-Supporters-In-Tripolis-Green-Square/Article/201102415940531?lpos=World_News_Carousel_Region_0&lid=ARTICLE_15940531_Libya%3A_Gaddafi_Speaks_To_Supporters_In_Tripolis_Green_Square

‘Follow Me Or I Will Burn Libya’

Saif Gaddafi

Plan A live and die in Libya, Plan B live and die in Libya, Plan C live and die in Libya.

And the Colonel did like to mention the Waco siege

http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/april/19/newsid_2489000/2489769.stm

Somewhere in all the scenarios the security and intelligence services will be looking at an ‘extreme firework display’.

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