Copenhagen: The 3 Degrees of Change

 

Population is a major problem, but unfortunately it needs long tern planning to resolve. It has been left too late.

Every time I here about climate tipping points I have to say, no! These are climate only models that say things need to be done in 20 years or 10 years.

Climate models are a simplified abstraction from reality. Imagine taking your car for an MoT and they only check the tyres. You are told they are fine and will last another 20,000 miles. The next day you drive into the back of a bus. Because they didn’t check the brakes, and they were shot.

Climate models are as they say on the tin, climate only models and predictions. They are as the name says, restricted in scope. The danger is whole planetary ecological system collapse which will happen sooner than the climate only scenarios.

We need a strategy on 3 factors.

Reduced birthrates now to ensure reduced consumption in long term 40-50 years.

Resolve the climate issue so we know what it is doing and it relationship with ecological systems. Carbon trading will not be successful if there is a relationship between CO2 and increasing temperature and/or extreme weather. This is the 8-20 year scenario.

The most important is the ecological system collapse. All decisions of the G20 must be reversed. Consumption must decrease to preserve the ecological life support systems. Those who are old enough remember the Apollo 13 mission. When the life support systems malfunctioned, they shut down all none essential systems to reduce the demand on what remained of the capsules life support system.

Planets are the same just a bigger scale. And we have no other home or oasis to reach. We have to shut down demand on Earth’s systems now. Then restore the functioning up to preexisting levels. It is not just about carbon emissions. The planet is losing the ability to absorb carbon due to damage to ecosystems. Same with pollution etc.

Demand on ecological systems must be reduced immediately, otherwise recommendations on climate change or population control will be meaningless. As we as a planet will not get to the point in time when such policies have any beneficial affect.

Ecological, climate and population systems all need to be addressed. But if we don’t act now immediately on ecological collapse. Anything we do on climate or population will never have any benefit. The system will have collapsed long before, and us with it.

Celtic Lion

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