Just got back in from a walk. This was taken at about 4.15 pm. Ice forming on the edges of the River Ericht Blairgowrie. Same forming on the opposite bank.

Picture taken on night time distant scenery setting with flash. Camera hand held but held very steady during the time taken for exposure. The sky looking darker than in the photo. The lights in the distance are Blairgowrie

The sensible practical view we have been pushing for the last few weeks.

Good interview with the delegate from Tuvalu. Sensible stuff.

Over in Copenhagen the summit goes on. The Guardian reports, Climate Change Talks Stall

So what is going on there. Talk about losing 5 hours of negotiating time as African nations walk out. Negotiators working through the night ahead of heads of state arriving. Activists pushing for an agreement. What sort of agreement seems to have been forgotten,  just as long as they get an agreement.

Does it all seem bit of a lash up?

If it was so important shouldn’t there have been a bit more planning, a bit more of a measured approach, abit more forward thinking prior to the conference.

It’s looking like Changing Rooms or 60 Minute Makeover with everyone rushing to get ready for the ‘reveal’. Quality goes out of the window as priority is given to getting something done, anything, by some deadline.

Just how long have they had to prepare? What are we going to end up with? Any decision, even if it is the wrong decision?

“It is all something of a chess game -all the pieces have to be in the right place for the game to be won.”

Wrote Susan Watts in her BBC Newsnight Science Blog

Somehow reminding me of Broken English by Marianne Faithful. What are you fighting for?

No I don’t think Susan is correct. This is part of the problem  All this rhetoric of the ‘fight against global warming’  ‘the war on climate change’.

It is not a game, a battle, a fight or a war. People do not go into a pet shop and ask for a book on the battle of owning a puppy, or the fight in keeping goldfish, or go to Halfords and ask for something on making war on your Renault.

No we ask for caring or looking after a puppy or goldfish, or care and maintenance of a car. Anyone who using fight, battle or war in reference to climate change or running a planet, or thinks it’s a game with sides, does not understand the problem. So by default, apart from some random stab in the dark, cannot come up with answers or solutions to managing a planet on a journey to the future.

We have one planet and a long journey ahead of us if we decide to embark for the rest of the way. What we don’t want is some attempt on how to look after this planet on that journey based on some trading floor madness mentality that last year crashed something as simple as an economic system.

We can only hope nothing is achieved or agreed in Copenhagen. (It is better to have no decisions rather than a bad or wrong ones.) Then after the craziness has subsided, perhaps then we can do the job properly.

Celtic Lion

Tuesday 15th December update

From The Independent: The battle lines are drawn. The armies are lined up. The guns are loaded. But here in Copenhagen, a phony war is underway.

A fine example

At the time of the announced closure of the Corus steelworks. those who follow the BBC Newsnight blog will know I brought up the value of the carbon allowances that could be sold. I pointed out the figure from one steelworks would amaze. Some of us set about trying to find the figure.

This has just surfaced on James Delingpole blog at the Daily Telegraph.

£600 million

Though with opening another steelworks in India, to maintain levels of production, with European levels of emissions it appears another £600 could be claimed. Making a total of £1.2 billion.

Thanks to James for the info. Though I haven’t checked all the references to source.

Good to see Obama has flown a 747 to Oslo to pick up his Nobel Prize. Now he has now flown back to the US in his 747. Next week he flies his 747 to the Copenhagen to stress the importance of reducing carbon emissions, then fly back to the US in his 747.

Nothing like setting a good example.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/6781982/Deadly-storm-sweeps-across-America.html

How the fates conspire to affect the US negotiating position.

Population is a major problem, but unfortunately it needs long tern planning to resolve. It has been left too late.

Every time I here about climate tipping points I have to say, no! These are climate only models that say things need to be done in 20 years or 10 years.

Climate models are a simplified abstraction from reality. Imagine taking your car for an MoT and they only check the tyres. You are told they are fine and will last another 20,000 miles. The next day you drive into the back of a bus. Because they didn’t check the brakes, and they were shot.

Climate models are as they say on the tin, climate only models and predictions. They are as the name says, restricted in scope. The danger is whole planetary ecological system collapse which will happen sooner than the climate only scenarios.

We need a strategy on 3 factors.

Reduced birthrates now to ensure reduced consumption in long term 40-50 years.

Resolve the climate issue so we know what it is doing and it relationship with ecological systems. Carbon trading will not be successful if there is a relationship between CO2 and increasing temperature and/or extreme weather. This is the 8-20 year scenario.

The most important is the ecological system collapse. All decisions of the G20 must be reversed. Consumption must decrease to preserve the ecological life support systems. Those who are old enough remember the Apollo 13 mission. When the life support systems malfunctioned, they shut down all none essential systems to reduce the demand on what remained of the capsules life support system.

Planets are the same just a bigger scale. And we have no other home or oasis to reach. We have to shut down demand on Earth’s systems now. Then restore the functioning up to preexisting levels. It is not just about carbon emissions. The planet is losing the ability to absorb carbon due to damage to ecosystems. Same with pollution etc.

Demand on ecological systems must be reduced immediately, otherwise recommendations on climate change or population control will be meaningless. As we as a planet will not get to the point in time when such policies have any beneficial affect.

Ecological, climate and population systems all need to be addressed. But if we don’t act now immediately on ecological collapse. Anything we do on climate or population will never have any benefit. The system will have collapsed long before, and us with it.

Celtic Lion

Copenhagen should be about defining the best possible trajectory for this planet.

It must fail and should fail because it is flawed. Decisions are being based on those attending having one eye on reducing economic deficits. Caused by the very same Governments not even understanding how to run an economy. Having got that wrong they now want to run a planet.

Well the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference has started.

Understanding climate change is just a small part of the management of a planet.

‘…. Somehow the entire environmental situation has been reduced to climate change. That has been reduced to CO2, that has been reduced to carbon trading.

So if you don’t agree with carbon trading, you are a denier, a flat earther. ….’

Has effective planetary management been compromised for the benefit of the carbon trading markets?